Researchers at the Institute of Human Virology (IHV) at the University of Maryland School of Medicine (UMSOM) and the Global Virus Network (GVN) predict that the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) will follow a seasonal pattern similar to other respiratory viruses like seasonal flu. They base this on weather modeling data in countries where the virus has taken hold and spread within the community.
This map reflects average temperature data from March 2019 to April 2019 to predict the at-risk zone for community transmission of COVID-19. The zone at risk for significant community spread in the near term includes land areas within the green bands, outlined in dark black, but may change based on actual average temperatures in 2020 during this time period. (Image from Climate Reanalyzer)
“Based on what we have documented so far, it appears that the virus has a harder time spreading between people in warmer, tropical climates,” said study leader Mohammad Sajadi, MD, associate professor of medicine, UMSOM, physician-scientist at IHV, and a member of GVN.
The team based its predictions on weather data from the previous few months as well as typical patterns from last year to hypothesize on community spread within the next few weeks. “Using 2019 temperature data for March and April, risk of community spread could be predicted to occur in areas just north of the current areas at risk,” said study co-author Augustin Vintzileos, PhD, assistant research scientist in the Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center at the University of Maryland, College Park. They plan to investigate whether weather and climate forecasts could help provide more certainty to the predictions.
Researchers from Shiraz University of Medical Sciences in Shiraz, Iran, and Shaheed Beheshti University of Medical Sciences in Tehran, Iran, also participated in this study.
“I think what is important is that this is a testable hypothesis,” said study co-author Anthony Amoroso, MD, UMSOM associate professor of medicine and associate chief of infectious diseases who also is chief of clinical care programs for IHV. “If it holds true, it could be very helpful for health system preparation, surveillance, and containment efforts.”
In areas where the virus has already spread within the community, like Wuhan, Milan, and Tokyo, temperatures did not dip below the freezing mark, the researchers pointed out. They also based their predictions on a study of the novel coronavirus in the laboratory, which found that a temperature of 39 degrees Fahrenheit and humidity level of 20 to 80 percent is most conducive to the virus’ survival.
“Through this extensive research, it has been determined that weather modeling could potentially explain the spread of COVID-19, making it possible to predict the regions that are most likely to be at higher risk of significant community spread in the near future,” said Robert C. Gallo, MD, co-founder and director, IHV, and co-founder and chairman of the International Scientific Leadership Board of GVN. Gallo is also the Homer & Martha Gudelsky Distinguished Professor at UMSOM. “In addition to climate variables, there are multiple factors to be considered when dealing with a pandemic, such as human population densities, human factors, viral genetic evolution, and pathogenesis. This work illustrates how collaborative research can contribute to understanding, mitigating, and preventing infectious threats.”
Gallo is a co-founder of GVN, which is a consortium of leading virologists spanning 53 Centers of Excellence and nine affiliates in 32 countries worldwide, working collaboratively to train the next generation, advance knowledge about how to identify and diagnose pandemic viruses, mitigate and control how such viruses spread and make us sick, as well as develop drugs, vaccines, and treatments to combat them. The network has been meeting regularly to discuss the COVID-19 pandemic, sharing their expertise in all viral areas and their research findings.
“This study raises some provocative theories that, if correct, could be useful in helping to direct public health strategies,” said UMSOM Dean E. Albert Reece, MD, PhD, MBA, who also is executive vice president for medical affairs, University of Maryland, Baltimore, and the John Z. and Akiko K. Bowers Distinguished Professor. “Perhaps we should be conducting heightened surveillance and expending more resources into areas that currently have the climate that is conducive to community virus spread.”